Update scoring system
This commit is contained in:
109
README.md
109
README.md
@@ -381,6 +381,115 @@ This configuration allows for more aggressive trading strategies while maintaini
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- **Initial Balance**: Starting capital for backtest
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- **Advanced Config**: All bot parameters (time limits, profit control, etc.)
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### Backtest Scoring System
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The backtest scoring system evaluates strategy performance using a comprehensive multi-factor approach with weighted components and dynamic penalties. The final score ranges from 0-100, where 100 represents optimal performance.
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#### Scoring Components (Weighted Distribution)
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| Component | Weight | Description |
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|-----------|--------|-------------|
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| **Growth Percentage** | 25% | Primary performance metric based on total return |
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| **Sharpe Ratio** | 15% | Risk-adjusted return measure |
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| **Max Drawdown (USD)** | 12% | Maximum capital loss in absolute terms |
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| **Win Rate** | 15% | Percentage of profitable trades (weighted by trade count) |
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| **Profitability Bonus** | 8% | Additional reward for positive returns |
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| **Hodl Comparison** | 5% | Performance vs buy-and-hold strategy |
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| **Trade Count** | 5% | Sufficient trading activity validation |
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| **Recovery Time** | 2% | Time to recover from maximum drawdown |
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| **Test Duration** | 3% | Adequate testing period validation |
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| **Fees Impact** | 2% | Trading cost efficiency |
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#### Component Scoring Details
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**Growth Percentage (25%)**
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- **Negative Returns**: Linear penalty (20 + growth% × 1.5)
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- **0-5%**: Linear scale (0-40 points)
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- **5-10%**: Accelerated scale (40-100 points)
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- **10%+**: Full score (100 points)
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**Sharpe Ratio (15%)**
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- **Negative**: 0 points
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- **0-4**: Linear scale (0-100 points)
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- **4+**: Full score (100 points)
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**Max Drawdown USD (12%)**
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- **0-30%**: Exponential penalty (100 - (drawdown%/30 × 100)^1.5)
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- **30%+**: 0 points
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**Win Rate (15%)**
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- **Base Score**: Win rate percentage
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- **Trade Count Factor**: Full significance at 55+ trades, reduced for fewer trades
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- **Minimum Trade Penalty**: 50% penalty for <10 trades
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**Profitability Bonus (8%)**
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- **Positive Returns**: Logarithmic bonus (50 × (1 - 1/(1 + growth%/30)))
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- **Negative Returns**: 0 points
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**Hodl Comparison (5%)**
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- **Outperforms Hodl**: 0-80 points based on margin
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- **Underperforms Hodl**: 0-20 points based on underperformance
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**Trade Count (5%)**
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- **<5 trades**: 0 points
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- **5-10 trades**: Linear scale (0-50 points)
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- **10-50 trades**: Linear scale (50-100 points)
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- **50+ trades**: 100 points
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**Recovery Time (2%)**
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- **Timeframe-adjusted expectations**:
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- 5m: 3 days max recovery
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- 15m: 5 days max recovery
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- 30m: 10 days max recovery
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- 1h: 15 days max recovery
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- 4h: 30 days max recovery
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- 1d: 90 days max recovery
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**Test Duration (3%)**
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- **Timeframe-adjusted minimums**:
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- 5m: 14 days minimum
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- 15m: 28 days minimum
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- 30m: 56 days minimum
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- 1h: 84 days minimum
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- 4h: 120 days minimum
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- 1d: 90 days minimum
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- **Optimal duration**: 3× minimum duration
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**Fees Impact (2%)**
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- **0-2% fees**: Linear penalty (100-50 points)
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- **2-5% fees**: Linear penalty (50-0 points)
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- **5%+ fees**: 0 points
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- **Fees > PnL**: 0 points
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#### Dynamic Penalty System
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The scoring system applies dynamic penalties based on performance thresholds:
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**Profitability Rules**
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- **Negative Growth**: 10% penalty per 1% loss
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- **Negative Absolute PnL**: 70% penalty
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- **Low Win Rate**: 50% penalty per 10% below 30% (for 10+ trades)
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- **Low Profit**: 10% penalty per 1% below 2% (for 5+ trades)
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- **High Drawdown**: 2% penalty per 1% above 20%
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- **Short Test Duration**: 2% penalty per day below 30 days
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**Special Rules**
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- **No Positions**: Automatic 0 score
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- **Score Clamping**: Final score clamped between 0-100
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- **Error Handling**: Returns 0 for any calculation errors
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#### Scoring Philosophy
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The system prioritizes:
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1. **Consistent profitability** over high-risk gains
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2. **Risk management** through drawdown control
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3. **Statistical significance** through adequate trade counts
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4. **Timeframe-appropriate** expectations for recovery and duration
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5. **Cost efficiency** through fee management
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6. **Realistic performance** through dynamic penalties
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This comprehensive approach ensures that high-scoring strategies demonstrate robust, sustainable performance across multiple dimensions rather than relying on single metrics or short-term luck.
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### RunBacktestRequest Structure
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The backtest request supports both saved and dynamic configurations:
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@@ -682,7 +682,13 @@ namespace Managing.Application.Tests
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totalPnL: (double)backtestResult.FinalPnl,
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fees: (double)backtestResult.Fees,
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tradeCount: backtestResult.Positions?.Count ?? 0,
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maxDrawdownRecoveryTime: backtestResult.Statistics?.MaxDrawdownRecoveryTime ?? TimeSpan.Zero
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maxDrawdownRecoveryTime: backtestResult.Statistics?.MaxDrawdownRecoveryTime ?? TimeSpan.Zero,
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maxDrawdown: backtestResult.Statistics?.MaxDrawdown ?? 0,
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initialBalance: config.BotTradingBalance,
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startDate: backtestResult.StartDate,
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endDate: backtestResult.EndDate,
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feesPaid: backtestResult.Fees,
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timeframe: config.Timeframe
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);
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var scenarioResult = new ScenarioBacktestResult
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@@ -143,7 +143,8 @@ namespace Managing.Application.Backtesting
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tradingBot.User = user;
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await tradingBot.LoadAccount();
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var result = await GetBacktestingResult(config, tradingBot, candles, user, withCandles, requestId, metadata);
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var result =
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await GetBacktestingResult(config, tradingBot, candles, user, withCandles, requestId, metadata);
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if (user != null)
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{
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@@ -255,7 +256,12 @@ namespace Managing.Application.Backtesting
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totalPnL: (double)finalPnl,
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fees: (double)fees,
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tradeCount: bot.Positions.Count,
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maxDrawdownRecoveryTime: stats.MaxDrawdownRecoveryTime
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maxDrawdownRecoveryTime: stats.MaxDrawdownRecoveryTime,
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maxDrawdown: stats.MaxDrawdown,
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initialBalance: config.BotTradingBalance,
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startDate: candles[0].Date,
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endDate: candles.Last().Date,
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timeframe: config.Timeframe
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);
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var score = BacktestScorer.CalculateTotalScore(scoringParams);
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@@ -813,7 +813,7 @@ public class TradingBotFitness : IFitness
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).Result;
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// Calculate multi-objective fitness based on backtest results
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var fitness = CalculateMultiObjectiveFitness(backtest, config);
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var fitness = CalculateFitness(backtest, config);
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return fitness;
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}
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@@ -824,38 +824,13 @@ public class TradingBotFitness : IFitness
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}
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}
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private double CalculateMultiObjectiveFitness(Backtest backtest, TradingBotConfig config)
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private double CalculateFitness(Backtest backtest, TradingBotConfig config)
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{
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if (backtest == null || backtest.Statistics == null)
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return 0.1;
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var stats = backtest.Statistics;
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// Multi-objective fitness function (matching frontend)
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var pnlScore = Math.Max(0, (double)stats.TotalPnL / 1000); // Normalize PnL
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var winRateScore = backtest.WinRate / 100.0; // Normalize win rate
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var riskRewardScore =
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Math.Min(2, (double)stats.WinningTrades / Math.Max(1, Math.Abs((double)stats.LoosingTrades)));
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var consistencyScore = 1 - Math.Abs((double)stats.TotalPnL - (double)backtest.FinalPnl) /
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Math.Max(1, Math.Abs((double)stats.TotalPnL));
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// Risk-reward ratio bonus
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var riskRewardRatio = (double)(config.MoneyManagement.TakeProfit / config.MoneyManagement.StopLoss);
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var riskRewardBonus = Math.Min(0.2, (riskRewardRatio - 1.1) * 0.1);
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// Drawdown score (normalized to 0-1, where lower drawdown is better)
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var maxDrawdownPc = Math.Abs((double)stats.MaxDrawdownPc);
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var drawdownScore = Math.Max(0, 1 - (maxDrawdownPc / 50));
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// Weighted combination
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var fitness =
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pnlScore * 0.3 +
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winRateScore * 0.2 +
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riskRewardScore * 0.2 +
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consistencyScore * 0.1 +
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riskRewardBonus * 0.1 +
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drawdownScore * 0.1;
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return Math.Max(0, fitness);
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// Use the comprehensive backtest score directly as fitness
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// The BacktestScorer already includes all important metrics with proper weighting
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return backtest.Score;
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}
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}
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@@ -1,3 +1,5 @@
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using static Managing.Common.Enums;
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namespace Managing.Domain.Backtests;
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public class BacktestScoringParams
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@@ -11,6 +13,14 @@ public class BacktestScoringParams
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public double Fees { get; }
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public int TradeCount { get; }
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public TimeSpan MaxDrawdownRecoveryTime { get; }
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// New properties for enhanced scoring
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public decimal MaxDrawdown { get; }
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public decimal InitialBalance { get; }
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public DateTime StartDate { get; }
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public DateTime EndDate { get; }
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public decimal FeesPaid { get; }
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public Timeframe Timeframe { get; }
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public BacktestScoringParams(
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double sharpeRatio,
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@@ -21,7 +31,12 @@ public class BacktestScoringParams
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double totalPnL,
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double fees,
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int tradeCount,
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TimeSpan maxDrawdownRecoveryTime)
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TimeSpan maxDrawdownRecoveryTime,
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decimal maxDrawdown = 0,
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decimal initialBalance = 0,
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DateTime startDate = default,
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DateTime endDate = default,
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Timeframe timeframe = Timeframe.OneHour)
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{
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SharpeRatio = sharpeRatio;
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MaxDrawdownPc = maxDrawdownPc;
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@@ -32,5 +47,10 @@ public class BacktestScoringParams
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Fees = fees;
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TradeCount = tradeCount;
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MaxDrawdownRecoveryTime = maxDrawdownRecoveryTime;
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MaxDrawdown = maxDrawdown;
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InitialBalance = initialBalance;
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StartDate = startDate;
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EndDate = endDate;
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Timeframe = timeframe;
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}
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}
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@@ -1,25 +1,33 @@
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using Managing.Domain.Backtests;
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using static Managing.Common.Enums;
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public class BacktestScorer
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{
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// Updated weights without ProfitEfficiency
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// Updated weights with more balanced distribution
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private static readonly Dictionary<string, double> Weights = new Dictionary<string, double>
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{
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{ "GrowthPercentage", 0.28 },
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{ "SharpeRatio", 0.18 },
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{ "MaxDrawdownPc", 0.15 },
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{ "GrowthPercentage", 0.25 },
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{ "SharpeRatio", 0.15 },
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{ "MaxDrawdownUsd", 0.12 },
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{ "HodlComparison", 0.05 },
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{ "WinRate", 0.18 },
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{ "ProfitabilityBonus", 0.11 },
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{ "TradeCount", 0.03 },
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{ "RecoveryTime", 0.02 }
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{ "WinRate", 0.15 },
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{ "ProfitabilityBonus", 0.08 },
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{ "TradeCount", 0.05 },
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{ "RecoveryTime", 0.02 },
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{ "TestDuration", 0.03 },
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{ "FeesImpact", 0.02 }
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};
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public static double CalculateTotalScore(BacktestScoringParams p)
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{
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try
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{
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// Early exit for no positions
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if (p.TradeCount == 0)
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{
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return 0;
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}
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var baseScore = CalculateBaseScore(p);
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var finalScore = ApplyProfitabilityRules(baseScore, p);
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@@ -37,12 +45,14 @@ public class BacktestScorer
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{
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{ "GrowthPercentage", CalculateGrowthScore(p.GrowthPercentage) },
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{ "SharpeRatio", CalculateSharpeScore(p.SharpeRatio) },
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{ "MaxDrawdownPc", CalculateDrawdownScore(p.MaxDrawdownPc) },
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{ "MaxDrawdownUsd", CalculateDrawdownUsdScore(p.MaxDrawdown, p.InitialBalance) },
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{ "HodlComparison", CalculateHodlComparisonScore(p.GrowthPercentage, p.HodlPercentage) },
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{ "WinRate", CalculateWinRateScore(p.WinRate, p.TradeCount) },
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{ "ProfitabilityBonus", CalculateProfitabilityBonus(p.GrowthPercentage) },
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{ "TradeCount", CalculateTradeCountScore(p.TradeCount) },
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{ "RecoveryTime", CalculateRecoveryScore(p.MaxDrawdownRecoveryTime) }
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{ "RecoveryTime", CalculateRecoveryScore(p.MaxDrawdownRecoveryTime, p.Timeframe) },
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{ "TestDuration", CalculateTestDurationScore(p.StartDate, p.EndDate, p.Timeframe) },
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{ "FeesImpact", CalculateFeesImpactScore(p.FeesPaid, p.InitialBalance, (decimal)p.TotalPnL) }
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};
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return componentScores.Sum(kvp => kvp.Value * Weights[kvp.Key]);
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@@ -50,58 +60,78 @@ public class BacktestScorer
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private static double ApplyProfitabilityRules(double baseScore, BacktestScoringParams p)
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{
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// 1. Negative PnL Penalty (Core Rule)
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var penaltyMultiplier = 1.0;
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// 1. Negative PnL Penalty (Dynamic)
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if (p.GrowthPercentage < 0)
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{
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baseScore = Math.Min(baseScore, 70) * GetNegativePnLMultiplier(p.GrowthPercentage);
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var negativePenalty = Math.Abs(p.GrowthPercentage) * 0.1; // 10% penalty per 1% loss
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penaltyMultiplier *= Math.Max(0.1, 1 - negativePenalty);
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}
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// 2. Absolute PnL Validation (Additional Recommendation)
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// 2. Absolute PnL Validation (Dynamic)
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if (p.TotalPnL <= 0)
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{
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baseScore = Math.Min(baseScore, 50);
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penaltyMultiplier *= 0.3; // 70% penalty for negative absolute PnL
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}
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// 3. Win Rate Validation (Additional Recommendation)
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// 3. Win Rate Validation (Dynamic)
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if (p.WinRate < 0.3 && p.TradeCount > 10)
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{
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baseScore = Math.Min(baseScore, 60);
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var winRatePenalty = (0.3 - p.WinRate) * 0.5; // 50% penalty per 10% below 30%
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penaltyMultiplier *= Math.Max(0.2, 1 - winRatePenalty);
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}
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// 4. Minimum Profit Threshold (Additional Recommendation)
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// 4. Minimum Profit Threshold (Dynamic)
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if (p.GrowthPercentage < 2 && p.TradeCount > 5)
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{
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baseScore = Math.Min(baseScore, 80);
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var profitPenalty = (2 - p.GrowthPercentage) * 0.1; // 10% penalty per 1% below 2%
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penaltyMultiplier *= Math.Max(0.5, 1 - profitPenalty);
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}
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return baseScore;
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// 5. Drawdown Penalty (Dynamic)
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if (p.MaxDrawdownPc > 20)
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{
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var drawdownPenalty = (p.MaxDrawdownPc - 20) * 0.02; // 2% penalty per 1% above 20%
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penaltyMultiplier *= Math.Max(0.3, 1 - drawdownPenalty);
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}
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// 6. Test Duration Penalty (Dynamic)
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var testDurationDays = (p.EndDate - p.StartDate).TotalDays;
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if (testDurationDays < 30)
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{
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var durationPenalty = (30 - testDurationDays) * 0.02; // 2% penalty per day below 30
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penaltyMultiplier *= Math.Max(0.5, 1 - durationPenalty);
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}
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return baseScore * penaltyMultiplier;
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}
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private static double CalculateGrowthScore(double growthPercentage)
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{
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// More aggressive penalty for negative growth
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// More aggressive scoring - harder to reach 100
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if (growthPercentage < 0)
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{
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return Math.Max(0, 40 + (growthPercentage * 2)); // -10% → 20, -20% → 0
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return Math.Max(0, 20 + (growthPercentage * 1.5)); // -10% → 5, -20% → 0
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}
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// Require minimum 5% growth for full score
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// Require minimum 10% growth for full score (increased from 5%)
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return growthPercentage switch
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{
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< 5 => growthPercentage * 15, // 2% → 30, 4% → 60
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< 5 => growthPercentage * 8, // 2% → 16, 4% → 32
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< 10 => 40 + (growthPercentage - 5) * 12, // 5% → 40, 7% → 64, 9% → 88
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_ => 100
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};
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}
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// Existing multiplier calculation
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private static double GetNegativePnLMultiplier(double growthPercentage)
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{
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return growthPercentage switch
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{
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> -5 => 0.8,
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> -10 => 0.6,
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> -20 => 0.4,
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_ => 0.2
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> -5 => 0.6,
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> -10 => 0.4,
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> -20 => 0.2,
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_ => 0.1
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};
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}
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@@ -109,42 +139,49 @@ public class BacktestScorer
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{
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return growthPercentage switch
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{
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> 0 => 100 * (1 - 1 / (1 + growthPercentage / 50)), // Diminishing returns
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> 0 => 50 * (1 - 1 / (1 + growthPercentage / 30)), // Reduced max bonus to 50
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_ => 0
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};
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}
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private static bool IsInactiveStrategy(BacktestScoringParams p)
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{
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// Detect strategies with no economic value
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return (p.GrowthPercentage <= p.HodlPercentage &&
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p.TotalPnL <= 0) ||
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p.TradeCount < 3;
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}
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private static double CalculateSharpeScore(double sharpeRatio)
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{
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return sharpeRatio switch
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{
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< 0 => 0,
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> 3 => 100,
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_ => (sharpeRatio / 3) * 100
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> 4 => 100, // Increased threshold from 3 to 4
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_ => (sharpeRatio / 4) * 100
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};
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}
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private static double CalculateDrawdownScore(double maxDrawdownPc)
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private static double CalculateDrawdownUsdScore(decimal maxDrawdown, decimal initialBalance)
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{
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return maxDrawdownPc switch
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if (initialBalance <= 0) return 0;
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var drawdownPercentage = (double)(maxDrawdown / initialBalance * 100);
|
||||
return drawdownPercentage switch
|
||||
{
|
||||
> 90 => 0,
|
||||
_ => 100 - Math.Pow(maxDrawdownPc / 90 * 100, 2) / 100
|
||||
> 30 => 0, // 30% drawdown in USD = 0 score
|
||||
_ => 100 - Math.Pow(drawdownPercentage / 30 * 100, 1.5) / 100
|
||||
};
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
private static double CalculateWinRateScore(double winRate, int tradeCount)
|
||||
{
|
||||
// Base win rate score
|
||||
var baseScore = winRate * 100;
|
||||
var significanceFactor = Math.Min(1, tradeCount / 100.0);
|
||||
|
||||
// Significance factor - more aggressive
|
||||
var significanceFactor = Math.Min(1, (tradeCount - 5) / 50.0); // Start at 5 trades, full significance at 55 trades
|
||||
|
||||
// Additional penalty for very few trades
|
||||
if (tradeCount < 10)
|
||||
{
|
||||
significanceFactor *= 0.5; // 50% penalty for less than 10 trades
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
return baseScore * significanceFactor;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -153,31 +190,87 @@ public class BacktestScorer
|
||||
var difference = strategyGrowth - hodlGrowth;
|
||||
return difference switch
|
||||
{
|
||||
> 0 => 100 - (100 / (1 + difference / 5)),
|
||||
_ => Math.Max(0, 30 + difference * 3)
|
||||
> 0 => 80 - (80 / (1 + difference / 3)), // Reduced max to 80
|
||||
_ => Math.Max(0, 20 + difference * 2) // Reduced base score
|
||||
};
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
private static double CalculateTradeCountScore(int tradeCount)
|
||||
{
|
||||
return Math.Min(100, Math.Max(0, (tradeCount - 10) * 0.5));
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
private static double CalculateRecoveryScore(TimeSpan recoveryTime)
|
||||
{
|
||||
var days = recoveryTime.TotalDays;
|
||||
return days switch
|
||||
return tradeCount switch
|
||||
{
|
||||
< 0 => 100,
|
||||
> 365 => 0,
|
||||
_ => 100 - (days / 365 * 100)
|
||||
< 5 => 0,
|
||||
< 10 => (tradeCount - 5) * 10, // 5-10 trades: 0-50 points
|
||||
< 50 => 50 + (tradeCount - 10) * 1.25, // 10-50 trades: 50-100 points
|
||||
_ => 100
|
||||
};
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
private static double CalculateRiskAdjustedGrowthScore(double growth, double drawdown)
|
||||
private static double CalculateRecoveryScore(TimeSpan recoveryTime, Timeframe timeframe)
|
||||
{
|
||||
if (drawdown == 0) return 100;
|
||||
var ratio = growth / drawdown;
|
||||
return Math.Min(ratio * 10, 100);
|
||||
var days = recoveryTime.TotalDays;
|
||||
|
||||
// Adjust recovery expectations based on timeframe
|
||||
var maxRecoveryDays = timeframe switch
|
||||
{
|
||||
Timeframe.FiveMinutes => 3.0, // 1 week for 5m
|
||||
Timeframe.FifteenMinutes => 5.0, // 2 weeks for 15m
|
||||
Timeframe.ThirtyMinutes => 10.0, // 3 weeks for 30m
|
||||
Timeframe.OneHour => 15.0, // 1 month for 1h
|
||||
Timeframe.FourHour => 30.0, // 2 months for 4h
|
||||
Timeframe.OneDay => 90.0, // 6 months for 1d
|
||||
_ => 30.0 // Default to 1 month
|
||||
};
|
||||
|
||||
if (days < 0) return 100;
|
||||
if (days > maxRecoveryDays) return 0;
|
||||
return 100 - (days / maxRecoveryDays * 100);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
private static double CalculateTestDurationScore(DateTime startDate, DateTime endDate, Timeframe timeframe)
|
||||
{
|
||||
var durationDays = (endDate - startDate).TotalDays;
|
||||
|
||||
// Adjust minimum test duration based on timeframe
|
||||
var minTestDays = timeframe switch
|
||||
{
|
||||
Timeframe.FiveMinutes => 14.0, // 3 days for 5m
|
||||
Timeframe.FifteenMinutes => 28.0, // 1 week for 15m
|
||||
Timeframe.ThirtyMinutes => 56.0, // 2 weeks for 30m
|
||||
Timeframe.OneHour => 84.0, // 3 weeks for 1h
|
||||
Timeframe.FourHour => 120.0, // 1 month for 4h
|
||||
Timeframe.OneDay => 90.0, // 3 months for 1d
|
||||
_ => 21.0 // Default to 3 weeks
|
||||
};
|
||||
|
||||
var optimalTestDays = minTestDays * 3; // Optimal is 3x minimum
|
||||
|
||||
if (durationDays < minTestDays) return 0;
|
||||
if (durationDays < optimalTestDays) return (durationDays / optimalTestDays) * 100;
|
||||
return 100;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
private static double CalculateFeesImpactScore(decimal feesPaid, decimal initialBalance, decimal totalPnL)
|
||||
{
|
||||
if (initialBalance <= 0) return 0;
|
||||
|
||||
var feesPercentage = (double)(feesPaid / initialBalance * 100);
|
||||
var pnlPercentage = (double)(totalPnL / initialBalance * 100);
|
||||
|
||||
// If fees are higher than PnL, heavy penalty
|
||||
if (feesPaid > totalPnL && totalPnL > 0)
|
||||
{
|
||||
return 0;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// Fee efficiency score
|
||||
var feeEfficiency = feesPercentage switch
|
||||
{
|
||||
> 5 => 0, // More than 5% fees = 0
|
||||
> 2 => 50 - (feesPercentage - 2) * 16.67, // 2-5%: 50-0 points
|
||||
_ => 100 - feesPercentage * 25 // 0-2%: 100-50 points
|
||||
};
|
||||
|
||||
return feeEfficiency;
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user